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File RB-22 · National rank 282 · 2028 class

Nate Sheppard

#20· Duke ·RB ·So ·2028 Draft · Mandeville, LA
5'10"Height 200 lbWeight
RepresentationVaynerSports Confirmed
Boom-or-BustHigh CeilingStat Producer
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My Grade
6.5/10
Priority UDFA
Current · UDFA Territory
5.8 Floor range 2.8 Ceiling 8.6
8.6/10
Day 2 Caliber
Ceiling · +2.1
5.8/10
Priority UDFA
Floor · −0.7
Ceiling: Daelan call (2026-07-20): scouted him personally — solid tape, real development runway; upside carried in the ceiling.
Floor: Proven starter — high, stable floor · returning-starter role secures it; downside −0.7.
Grade not yet reviewed
8.9+ Round 1 Caliber
7.8+ Day 2 Caliber
6.7+ Day 3 Caliber
5.6+ Priority UDFA
4.4+ UDFA
3.3+ Long Shot
2.2+ Raw Prospect
1.1+ Deep Project
0.0+ Non-Prospect
Grade History
6.5 2025
Re-graded after each season · 2025 is the beta baseline.
Scouting Notes

A true freshman broke Duke's freshman rushing record on an ACC championship team — 1,132 yards, second in the conference, with 11 touchdowns and 37 catches on genuine every-down usage. The workload is the striking part: 200 carries plus real receiving duty at 18 years old across 14 games, and the ceiling grade points steeply up because of it. The evaluation stays grounded anyway: it is one season, at a devalued position, from a player who isn't draft-eligible until 2028, and freshman-phenom backs have a long history of year-two regressions once defenses get a full offseason of study — the number that matters most in 2026 is whether the 5.7 per carry survives another 200-touch season. Today this is a fringe pro grade with one of the widest bands on the roster; sustain the production through 2027 and the early-round chatter in Durham stops sounding premature and starts sounding like scouting.