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File QB-01 · National rank 1 · 2027 class

Arch Manning

#16· Texas ·QB ·Jr ·2027 Draft · New Orleans, La.
6'4"Height 226 lbWeight
RepresentationExcel Sports Management AgentAlan Zucker Confirmed
Day 1 ConsensusDay 1 StarterElite TalentMulti-Year Starter +1
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My Grade
9.6/10
Round 1 Caliber
Current · Draft Caliber
8.8 Floor range 0.8 Ceiling 9.6
9.6/10
Round 1 Caliber
Ceiling · +0.0
8.8/10
Day 2 Caliber
Floor · −0.8
Ceiling: Projected 2026 starter (QB1) — real opportunity to climb; close to ceiling (+0.0) · up-year team · QB premium.
Floor: Proven starter — high, stable floor · returning-starter role secures it; downside −0.8.
Grade last reviewed 1w ago
8.9+ Round 1 Caliber
7.8+ Day 2 Caliber
6.7+ Day 3 Caliber
5.6+ Priority UDFA
4.4+ UDFA
3.3+ Long Shot
2.2+ Raw Prospect
1.1+ Deep Project
0.0+ Non-Prospect
Grade History
9.6 2025
Re-graded after each season · 2025 is the beta baseline.
Scouting Notes

Franchise bloodline finally matched with a franchise resume. Manning waited two seasons as a backup, then took over Texas in 2025 and delivered: 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns against 7 picks across 13 games, plus 399 rushing yards and 10 more scores from a bigger, more willing runner than the family name suggests. The arm talent that made him the No. 1 overall recruit shows up in the touchdown column, and the rushing dimension gives him something Peyton and Eli never carried. However, a 61.4 completion percentage is ordinary for a projected first pick — it fell more than six points from his 2024 relief sample — and one year of full-time command is still one year. The 2027 mock landscape has him first overall almost universally, and the grade agrees: Round 1 caliber, the cleanest bet in the class, with accuracy polish the lone box left to check.