The No. 1 overall recruit in America playing out exactly the freshman season history said he would: flashes of a rare arm buried in an 11-to-9 touchdown-to-pick line at 60.3 percent. This grade prices the tape, not the hype — 2,428 yards as a true freshman thrown straight into Big Ten starts is real volume, but the accuracy and decision-making ran hot and cold week to week, and on the 2025 film alone he is a Day 3 quarterback. Nobody, including this board, expects that to be the story. The 9.6 ceiling column carries the actual projection: Kiper has floated future No. 1 overall pick, 2028 boards already have his name at the top, and he cannot declare before 2028 anyway. What 2026 needs to show is simple — fewer interceptions and a completion rate pushing the mid-60s. The pedigree-to-production gap is the entire evaluation.